Dividend Investing to $1 Million #7: Rate Cut Relief
The Feds actually cut rates. It’s only a quarter of a basis point, but it’s something. Let’s see how my portfolio fared after this rate cut.
Table of Content
Hey guys, welcome back to another dividend portfolio update for my Dividend Investing to $1 Million series.
So… as you would most likely be able to tell, I missed out on October’s update. I was awfully busy trying to shift to a Notion-based website builder in lieu of Wordpress and work was hectic. Now that we’re approaching the lull period between Christmas and New Year, I have more time to sit down and work on my blogs.
And thankfully, we didn’t witness too many crazy happenings during October AND November, so don’t worry - you didn’t miss much.
Anyway, here’s a recap of some of the most important market news that transpired in October and November.
October & November Market News
1. US Consumer Sentiment Falls to One of the Lowest Levels on Record
What Happened:
In November 2025, U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index sliding to around 51, one of its weakest readings in several years and close to its post-pandemic lows.
In November 2025, U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index sliding to around 51, one of its weakest readings in several years and close to its post-pandemic lows.
Households reported sustained concerns about high prices and their personal financial situations. Broader measures of consumer confidence also captured worries about jobs and economic prospects, reflecting growing pessimism about the overall economy.
Simple Explanation:
Consumer sentiment is very important because consumer spending drives a large portion of the U.S. economy. 68.1% according to CEIC, to be exact, as of mid-2025.
When consumer confidence collapses like this, markets start to worry about weaker consumer spending ahead, which will hurt company revenues and earnings. Weaker company earnings typically lead to slowdowns in hiring and if conditions persist, manpower cuts. Such news scares people into tightening their purse strings even more as they practice caution.
You get it. It becomes a vicious feedback loop.
How This Could Affect Us in Singapore:
The usual la. Anything that happens in the US typically ripples across the global economy. Sluggish growth in the US likely means a slowdown here too.
2. Government Reopens After a 1-Month Shutdown
What Happened:
The U.S. federal government reopened on November 12th after a 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, following weeks of political deadlock over government funding. The shutdown began on October 1 and forced many federal agencies to halt operations, leaving hundreds of thousands of government workers furloughed or working without pay, while many contractors were laid off as projects were paused.
Simple Explanation:
This one a little more complicated, so let’s break it down.
Firstly, “furloughed” is just a needlessly complicated way of describing being sent home without pay.
Secondly, although it might sound all fine and dandy now that Trump signed the spending bill and the government is back in operation, there are lasting problems that are still being sorted out:
- An estimated 900,000 federal employees were furloughed, leading to loss of income;
- Agencies returned to significant backlog and are still struggling to clear all of it;
- Delay in economic data such as monthly jobs report and Consumer Price Index (it was announced that the October job report will not be published due to the shutdown - we’re never going to know what the numbers were like during that month)
The main takeaway? The US is still recovering from this fiasco and the full effects - especially on jobs and spending - may only show up in upcoming economic reports.
How This Could Impact Us:
Same as point 1.
3) Nvidia Beats Earnings Estimates, Then Stocks Slide
What Happened:
Nvidia reported quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations for both revenue and profit, and provided guidance for continued strong growth. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock jumped and helped push major U.S. stock indexes higher. But later in the same trading session and the next day, Nvidia’s gains faded and other big tech stocks slid, leading to a broader sell-off in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Simple Explanation:
I thought this was quite funny because right after Nvidia rallied, a friend of mine posted on his IG story, boasting about his gains and how he was right that the whole AI bubble thing was nonsensical. He was awfully quiet when it slid back down just hours after. (To be fair, we’re now back up and once again testing all-time highs, but it was hilarious while it lasted)
Anyway!
In a nutshell, Nvidia performed really well, once again smashing expectations. On top of that, Nvidia expects this momentum to continue, forecasting further growth in future quarters. Initially, the market celebrated this feat.
Then, a couple of hours later on the very same day… those very same investors somehow got cold feet. The markets reversed and closed lower. Way lower.
As to why this happened, the primary reason is likely how investors are already antsy about tech companies being overvalued. It doesn’t take much to spook them and a small sell-off (maybe investors taking profit?) is enough to set off an avalanche.
How This Could Affect Us in Singapore:
Tech and semiconductor stocks around the world tend to move in sync. Just look at the two charts below and you’ll see that the STI also fell with the S&P500 on the 19th of November, the day Nvidia reported their earnings.
4. Global Growth Forecasts Get a Small Upgrade, With China Standing Out
What Happened:
In November, S&P Global slightly raised its global real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, signalling that the world economy may be a bit more resilient than previously expected. The main driver of the upgrade was China, with its annual real GDP growth forecasts for 2025–2027 raised to 5.0%, 4.6%, and 4.5%, about 0.25 percentage points higher each year than earlier projections.
Simple Explanation:
S&P Global is basically saying that the global economy looks to be in better shape than they first thought.
But before you get excited, it’s not by alot.
This is is still a very cautious upgrade because there are tons of other risks hanging over us like a noose. We’re talking trade tensions, political uncertainty, weak job prospects, high interest rates, inflation... all those bad stuff.
And… the biggest reason for this small upgrade is China.
S&P Global now expects China’s economy to grow faster over the next few years than they previously forecast, helped by better export prospects and more support from the Chinese government through easier monetary and fiscal policies.
How This Could Affect Us:
If China’s economy performs better than the global average, it’s likely good for Singapore.
China is one of our largest trading partners (it was the largest in 2023, I’m not sure about 2025), both imports and exports-wise, so stronger growth there usually means more demand for goods and services that either pass through or are produced in Singapore.
Either way, good for us. Except maybe not that good because the yuan might strengthen and trips to China will get more expensive.
5. Feds cuts rates by 25 basis points in October, holds steady in November
What Happened:
After already delivering a 25 bp cut earlier in September, the Federal Reserve followed up with yet another 25 bp cut in October, bringing the baseline lending rate down to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed then left rates unchanged through November, as policymakers paused to assess how earlier cuts were feeding into inflation and the broader economy.
Simple Explanation:
The successive rate cut in October was somewhat expected after an edging up in unemployment numbers and inflation, while still high, was no longer accelerating and showed signs of being under control.
In November, the government shutdown disrupted the release of key economic data which the Feds use to make their decisions. They chose not to act on partial information and held rates steady instead.
How This Could Affect Us:
Interest rates in the US influence interest rates around the world. We’re already seeing fixed deposit and savings rates fall across all major banks in Singapore, and this is largely driven by expectations that the Feds will continue lowering interest rates going into 2026 considering the state of the economy.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. On the flip side, mortgage rates tied to SORA have fallen to multi-year lows, easing monthly repayments and improving housing affordability. On that note, remember to refinance your mortgages while you can to take advantage of the lower interest rates!
Market Performance
This might sound like an essay… and I apologize. Even I felt like I was writing some fanfic.
But it’s inevitable considering I’m condensing 2 months worth of action and movement was aplenty in this volatile market.
October was rocky for the a large portion of the month. The S&P500 dropped around 2.7% in 1 day on the 10th, driven by renewed fears around US-China tariff-related tension, making it the biggest single-day decrease since… well, Donald Trump’s tariffs on Liberation Day earlier this year.
It looked like the S&P500’s winning streak was finally going to end, but a stunning recovery towards the end of the month led by strong corporate earnings capped off one of the longest periods of sustained, consecutive monthly growth for the S&P500 at 6 months.
Going into November, there was unease among investors due to two main reasons:
- The release of delayed economic data after the US government resumed operation which will reveal how the economy is holding up and;
- Upcoming key earnings, particularly around Nvidia’s Q3 earnings announcement on the 19th of November
And much like Asian parents’ unrealistic expectations towards their children, despite beating analyst earnings estimates by 5% - basically getting an A in a test - Nvidia was still deemed a disappointment by investors.
Many tech stocks sold off as talks about overvaluation resurfaced. There was a prolonged period of volatility following Nvidia’s earning date, but the S&P500 closed at 6,538 points the next day, a ~1.3% move lower.
But the craziest part is how despite all this volatility and talk about the AI bubble at the verge of bursting, November still ended on a positive note. Barely, but we did inch higher nevertheless.
This means that we’re now up to a 7-month winning streak, which supposedly has only happened 15 times in the past. It’s also the longest stretch since the bull rally in the post-COVID boom of 2021.
S&P500 Global reported that the S&P500 index was up 0.13% in November for a total of 16.45% YTD.
My Stock Purchases
Well, there’s actually something to report on this month as I made some big changes to my portfolio across both months. Here’s a summary of what happened on each month:
October
Besides for CSPX, VWRA and SCHD, I made TWO big changes to my portfolio.
- MCHI
I made an unprecedented US$500 investment into MCHI, a ETF by BlackRock with targeted exposure to over 500 large and mid-sized companies in China. Some notable & familiar holdings captured within this ETF are Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, BYD, Netease Games, Trip.com and Baidu.
- Sembcorp (U96)
Secondly, I added yet another Singapore stock to my portfolio. This new entrant is Sembcorp, ticker symbol U96.
I’m sure most of us got to know of Sembcorp’s existence through the local garbage disposal trucks - the company’s name is plastered prominently on its sides.
But Sembcorp does so much more than just visiting HDB blocks and getting rid of our trash. At it’s very core, it’s an energy company providing renewable and sustainable energy solutions to countries all over Asia.
Besides for these 2 new purchases, I executed the same old purchases into SCHD, VWRA and CSPX.
November
And in November… I backtracked on a couple of decisions after a loooong period of retrospection. At the same time, I doubled down on some others.
- China, China, China
I bid a tearful goodbye to MCHI in November. We only knew each other for a short month, and it was good while it lasted, but there was a trait that I couldn’t overlook which made it impossible for us to have a future together.
This is entirely on me, btw. I didn’t do enough research into China ETFs. I initially went with MCHI because:
- It’s from Blackrock
- It’s the China ETF with the largest AUM
I only got to know its true nature a month later when I dug around a little. Akin to discovering that your partner has an extramarital affair while browsing the messages on his or her phone, I was on the brokerage and looking at my holdings when I stumbled upon MCHI’s expense ratio.
For those who aren’t familiar with expense ratios, it’s essentially the “fee” you pay to the companies who created and maintain these ETFs.
Now, I went in knowing China ETFs typically have a high expense ratio. At the very least, it’s high compared to S&P500 ETFs.
But even then, I wasn’t ready for exactly how expensive it was. It’s a crazy 0.59% p.a.!
To put that into perspective, if I invested $100,000 in MCHI and got 10% returns in a year which in absolute numbers would mean $10,000 - $590 would go to Blackrock, leaving me $9,410.
In comparison, for a S&P500 ETF, the expense ratio can go as low as 0.03% with VOO. I know it’s not fair as I’m not comparing apples to apples, but you can say that after getting a taste of affordability, I’m not willing to subject myself to such exorbitant rates.
Anyhow, I did some proper research this time. I wanted extensive exposure to the biggest Chinese companies, and I wanted it at an affordable rate.
And after putting together this table below with the help of AI and lots of manual cross-checking, I’m now certain which China ETF I should be putting my money into.
Which is why I dumped all my sales proceeds from the MCHI sale into FLCH.
Now, as a disclaimer, MCHI and FLCH differ slightly in holdings and weightage. I’m not going to cover this here, but I made the decision that this small difference didn’t justify the fee increase and that FLCH was the superior choice for my kiam siap approach.
- Goodbye VWRA
A lengthy review of my dividend portfolio and my holdings brought about an uncomfortable truth.
While my initial intention was diversification by owning as many US stocks through ETFs, I realized I had unintentionally become overexposed to the US market. Here’s why:
- VWRA: Marketed as a global ETF, but allocates around 60% of its portfolio to US equities because it’s the largest stock market in the world.
- CSPX: A UCITs ETF that’s 100% invested in US stocks as it tracks the S&P500.
- SCHD: An ETF that tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which comprises of 100% US companies that have a strong record of dividend payouts.
- Dividend Stock Picks: On top of the 3 ETFs above, I also own curated shares of US companies I personally like.
See the issue?
Owning all these ETFs didn’t meaningfully improve portfolio diversification. It only increased my US exposure. While this structure can make sense if one intentionally wants to overweigh their holdings towards the US, that wasn’t my goal.
I wanted - and still want - global diversification.
So… I made the decision to sell off VWRA entirely.
This simplification reduced unnecessary overlap and freed up capital to be deployed more intentionally into other regions where I was underexposed for proper global diversification. Which brings me to my last point!
- Addition of Global Exposure
The US still dominates global markets with the NYSE and NASDAQ leading in market capitalization by a large margin. China is the runner-up, and waiting in the wings are Japan, Korea and Europe.
With my current holdings of FLCH that tracks the FTSE China Index and a mix of US-centric ETFs (SCHD, CSPX, individual stock picks), I’m well covered for the two front-runners.
Which leaves me to plug the gaps with the other pillars of the global financial system.
This is where VEA comes in.
VEA tracks developed markets outside of the US, giving me exposure to regions such as Japan, Europe, Australia, and Canada. This makes it the perfect complement to my other holdings in US and China as there’s little to zero overlap.
Here’s a breakdown of VEA’s holdings:
Region / Country | Approx % of VEA* | Notes |
Japan | ~20–22% | Largest exposure — reflects Japan’s large market cap in developed world ex-US. |
United Kingdom | ~11–15% | Major European exposure — companies like AstraZeneca, HSBC, etc. |
Canada | ~9–10% | Part of developed markets outside US and China. |
Switzerland | ~7–8% | Includes companies like Nestlé / Roche. |
Germany | ~7% | Good European representation. |
France | ~6–7% | Another core European component. |
Australia | ~5–6% | Smaller portion but contributes to Pacific exposure. |
Other developed markets | ~20–25% | Includes Netherlands, Spain, etc. |
Emerging markets crossover | ~0–5% | Minor portion capturing developing markets. |
And to make sure I don’t make the same mistake again as with MCHI and FLCH, I also dived deep into the alternatives and their expense ratios and holdings. I’m quite certain that VEA is the only ETF that fits my unique set of criteria of:
- Developed Markets;
- Affordable;
- Excludes US & China
Here’s another table listing out the expense ratios of other ETFs that cover developed markets. They all differ slightly - and are noticeably cheaper than China - but there’s really only one clear winner in my opinion for my needs.
ETF | What It Tracks | Expense Ratio | Notes |
VEA – Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | FTSE Developed All Cap ex-US | 0.03% | Ultra-low cost; broad exposure to developed markets excluding US. |
IEFA – iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF | MSCI EAFE IMI (developed ex-US excl Canada) | 0.07% | Slightly higher cost; similar coverage but index differs. |
EFA – iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | MSCI EAFE | ~0.33% | Legacy ETF; more expensive than core series. |
VXUS – Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | FTSE Global All Cap ex-US | ~0.05% | Broader than VEA (includes developed + emerging markets). |
SPDW – SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF | Developed ex-US (similar to VEA) | ~0.04%* | Very low-cost alternative to VEA (depends on provider). |
And that’s why I made the leap and started buying heavily into FLCH.
This is a truncated breakdown of my rationale behind these purchases.
I cover these in further depth plus the role these equities (and in extension, my entire dividend portfolio) play as part of my broader investment strategy in My Financial Breakdown series. You can read that when it’s out if you’re interested!
My Portfolio Performance
Overall Performance
My portfolio contracted 0.11% in October and grew 1.4% in November.
My overall portfolio return remains at 20% for this year. In absolute dollars, that’s $10,000 worth of capital gains. My returns have increased around $6,000 since the start of the year.
Year to date, net of contributions, my portfolio is up 12.4%.
In comparison, year to date, the S&P500 did 16.45% in returns.
And as the chart above shows, my returns (the areas in green) have been growing in proportion to my invested amount (the areas in blue). It has definitely slowed down in October and November, but things are looking much rosier as compared to the start of the year.
Performance by Stock
Yeah, as usual, I forgot to take a snapshot of my portfolio performance on the 1st of December… so I’m making do with one from the 12th instead.
And of course, since I made a couple of new purchases and sold off some older stocks, the side-by-side comparison isn’t as functional. But the show must go on.
So… in October and November:
The biggest losers are a surprising mix of Microsoft (-10pp) and Sembcorp (-9pp).
The biggest winners are Google (+18pp) and OCBC (+3pp).
Dividend Payouts
I received S$133 in dividends in October and November from KO, MO, AAPL and DBS.
This brings the total dividends I have received year to date up to about S$888. Huat ah!
And with lots of dividend payouts scheduled in December from the likes of SCHD, KO and XOM, I’m fairly confident we’re going to break the coveted S$1,000 mark.
It’s a small milestone, but it feels groundbreaking to finally achieve it after investing for so long.
Progress Summary
I am now 58% of the way to my first big milestone of a S$100k dividend
portfolio.
Closing Thoughts
Diversification feels more important than ever.
History has shown us that empires rise and fall. As the eternal pessimist, while the US remains the dominant global economic power today, I find myself questioning whether that dominance will look the same just a couple of years from now.
Everything feels so shaky. It’s almost like we’re walking on eggshells at the moment. The AI bubble. Rising unemployment. Weaker consumer sentiment.
One wrong step by the Feds or even Trump and crack, the whole system comes tumbling down.
Of course, once again, I want to reiterate that I’m not saying it will. The US economy has proven time and time again that it’s a resilient son of a bitch, and any meaningful shift in economic power from one country to another won’t happen overnight. It will likely take decades, but regardless, I don’t feel comfortable putting all my eggs in one American basket.
This belief is what inspired the overhaul of my portfolio, with greater emphasis on ETFs that provide exposure outside the US. At the very least, with this change, I find it easier to sleep peacefully at night.
At the same time…
Job security has become an increasingly real concern.
If you frequent Reddit and have visited the Singapore subreddits in the past few months, you’ll see numerous threads discussing the local job market and how dire the situation is.
Now, I find myself always throwing out caveats, but I think it’s highly necessary for this specific discussion.
I understand that the people who post such threads and engage in such discussions are not representative of the entire population in Singapore. Negativity breeds negativity, and these threads tend to only attract the people who are directly affected by the job market slowdown, giving them a place to share their experiences and frustrations.
On the other hand, the people who are happily employed or getting headhunted by recruiters and living their best life wouldn’t even think of browsing such threads on Reddit. They might not be aware of these problems, and even if they are, see no reason to partake in such discourse.
As a result, what you see is a skewed snapshot of the economy. So let’s take everything there with a pinch of salt.
Nevertheless, I must say that I personally feel it too. Even though I’m not actively searching for a new opportunity, I’ve heard enough about the situation from my partner who was job-hunting for an entire year and only just managed to secure an offer. I also noticed that there’s significantly less jobs in marketing this past year as compared to the period post-COVID.
A couple of my close friends who were job hunting have echoed similar sentiments, saying it’s much tougher than before.
And this led me to consider if we’re at the lowest point in the trenches… or is this just a taste of things to come?
Yeah, I know. I brood a lot. Just let me be, can?
So as I was saying… lay-offs are commonplace nowadays. If it’s not due to AI-driven automation, it’s restructuring, offshoring, or consolidation. It doesn’t matter what corporate lingo is used, the reality is that employment has become increasingly volatile and job stability can no longer be taken for granted.
This has forced me to reflect on an uncomfortable question:
Should I be investing as aggressively as before, or should I prioritise building a larger safety buffer?
On one hand, slowing down investments impacts compounding and long-term goals. On the other, having sufficient savings provides a huge safety net, and most importantly, the ability to ride out uncertainty without being forced to liquidate investments at the worst possible time.
The real setback in my financial journey doesn’t stem from me pausing my monthly top-ups.
The real setback is if I’m forced to sell my holdings during a downturn because I lack savings and need the money to tide myself over.
Anyway, I’ve rambled on long enough. I’ll continue to explore this further in my My Financial Breakdown series.
And that about does it for this month’s update!
If you want to follow my journey towards financial freedom in more detail, you can also read My Financial Breakdown series where on a quarterly basis, I dive deep into every aspect of my finances (fully revealing my net worth, salary, expenses and other juicy stuff) and what I intend to do to reach my finance goal.
Until next time.
Stay safe, stay financially savvy, and most importantly, stay invested.
Cheers!
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