Dividend Investing to $1 Million #7: Rate Cut Relief
The Feds actually cut rates. It’s only a quarter of a basis point, but it’s something. Let’s see how my portfolio fared after this rate cut.
Table of Content
Hey guys, welcome back to another dividend portfolio update for my Dividend Investing to $1 Million series.
It’s July. We’re officially in H2 of 2025.
This past month has been yet another rollercoaster ride. I have lost track of the number of times I’ve said this, but it genuinely feels like that every damn month.
Still, I guess there’s cause for celebration, especially if you’ve grown bored of endless talks about tariff negotiations and the state of the financial markets. After reigniting the trade war in May, Trump casually decided that the “trade” portion should become silent.
War. Man actually went ahead and bombed Iran.
Say whatever you like about Trump, but you can’t deny that man has balls of steel. It’s truly a miracle that he’s able to walk considering their sheer size and weight.
But that’s enough glazing for the POTUS. I’m still kinda pissed that the market news portion is growing in length every week so that’s all he gets.
Anyhow, let’s hop straight into what happened in June.
June’s Market News
1. Feds Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged (Ya, again.)
What Happened: Jerome Powell announced that the central bank is leaving its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% on the 18th of June.
Simple Explanation: The Fed is being extra cautious about cutting rates because they want to make sure inflation stays under control. Even though many people want lower rates, the Fed prefers to wait and see clear evidence that the economy needs help before acting.
Potential Impact on Markets: High interest rates typically softens the market and weakens investor confidence. Only financial institutions like banks stand to benefit from this.
How This Could Affect Us: Even though we aren’t directly impacted, US monetary policy influences global sentiment. If the US market softens, markets in other countries typically follow suit.
2. Oil Price Fluctuation due to Israel-Iran Conflict
What Happened: Oil prices surged up to 15% as the Iran-Israel conflict raged, but then experienced a dramatic reversal. Oil prices are falling so much it’s now cheaper than it was before the Iran-Israel conflict.
Simple Explanation: Markets initially panicked about oil supply disruptions when Iran threatened to close off one of the most important sea routes – the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through it each day.
The world, however, quickly realized that it was all talk, no action. Oil supply was never truly disrupted at the end of the day, especially since countries were ready to deploy reserves to stabilize prices if necessary.
Potential Impact on Market:
- Energy stocks experiencing high volatility (my boy Exxon Mobil cannot get a break)
- Lower oil prices help reduce inflation
How This Could Affect Us: The need for energy is universal. Lower oil prices mean slower inflation. Overall a good thing for us la. But I doubt it lasts too long (and companies aren’t going to lower their prices anyway), so take this with a mountain of salt.
3. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Passes Congress
What happened: After weeks of back-and-forth which involved a 24-hour debate by the Senate, Congress finally passed Trump’s $3.4 trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill”. The Senate approved it in a dramatic 51–50 vote on July 1st, and Trump signed it into law on July 4th.
Simple Explanation: This bill slashes taxes for individuals and businesses, gives big incentives for companies to build factories in the U.S., and cuts back on government welfare programs like Medicaid and food assistance. It also reverses the clean energy subsidies (EV credits, wind/solar credits etc) Biden implemented during his tenure, shifting the country back to traditional energy sources such as oil and gas. In a nutshell, it’s great for the the ultra-rich and really bad for the less privileged.
Potential Impact on Market: Let’s split this into winners and losers.
- Winners
- Big corporations: Big tax relief equals higher profits
- Traditional Energy: Less regulation equals less barriers to growth
- Losers:
- Clean energy companies: Lost significant subsidies
- Healthcare providers: Loss of customers from less Medicaid coverage
- Low-income households: Decreased subsidies and safety nets
- Earth: Full steam ahead on global warming
How This Could Affect Us: Honestly ah, there are so many aspects of the economy that this bill is likely going to affect. In the short term, expect the US market to rally as the big corporations rake in profits from the tax reliefs.
For how it’s going to spill over to Singapore’s economy, it’s mainly with regards to US treasury bond yields. In order to pay off the $3.4 trillion fiscal deficit the bill will cause, more bonds will be issued, driving yields up. Singapore’s interest rates has historically move in tandem with US yield, and this in turn could lead to an increase in mortgage and business loan rates within Singapore.
But let’s wait and see. We never know what might happen.
4. Tariff Negotiation Deadline Extended
What Happened: On July 7th, Trump signed an executive order extending the U.S. tariff negotiation deadline to August 1, 2025. This replaces the previously scheduled July 8 deadline. The White House also confirmed that formal letters detailing proposed tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40% were sent to 14 countries. These letters outline the new tariff terms that will be imposed on them unless bilateral agreements are reached before the new deadline.
Simple Explanation: Trump essentially extended the deadline to allow for more time for negotiation (because clearly, unlike what he promised, the deals did not come flying in). At the same time, he also gave a giant middle finger disguised as letters to a couple of countries, threatening them with elevated tariff rates unless they come back to the negotiation table and… well, give in to his demands.
Potential Impact on Market:
- Short term relief for global markets
How This Could Affect Us: If you’re invested in U.S. equities like me, this is good news. For now, anyway. I mean, we’re literally at all-time highs. But if Trump ends up following through with the tariffs in August, we could see a reversal.
5. Stock Market Hits New High Amidst Uncertainty
What Happened: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs on the 3rd of July, with the S&P 500 adding 0.83% to close at 6,279.35 and the Nasdaq gaining 1.02% to 20,601.10.
Simple Explanation: Despite the political circus and economic uncertainties, the stock market continued to climb and has achieved a new high.
Potential Impact on Market:
- Momentum might continue strongly if the upcoming earnings season goes well
- A minor pullback could be imminent after such strong gains
Why This Matters For Us: Our portfolios are up! But also at the same time, this means that majority of stocks are currently the most “expensive” they have ever been. If you’re looking to invest right now, this is a good time to DCA rather than drop a lump sum in one go.
Market Performance
June was another great month for the market. Momentum seemed to have carried on from May into June. It wasn’t as steep of a growth as what we saw in May with the recovery bounce, but we still registered significant returns. More importantly, this makes it two consecutive months of growth. It was all doom and gloom in the beginning of the year, so this is real cause for celebration.
AI-led optimism and geopolitical relief stemming from the confirmation of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran were likely the two biggest reasons behind this rally.
S&P500 Global reported that the S&P500 was up 4.96% in June for a total of 5.50% YTD.
The DJI went up 4.32% in the same period for a total of 3.64% YTD.
My Stock Purchases
The month of June marks my biggest purchase of SG stocks to date, amounting to a total of S$6,172.
No, I didn’t strike Toto. I wish. Instead, I withdrew all my money out of my fixed deposit allocation (Cash+ Guaranteed) with Syfe and used some of it to fund this purchase. It no longer made sense to lock my funds for such a long time considering the current rate of returns.
But I won’t go too deep into details here. You can check out my other series – My Financial Breakdown – if you’re interested to find out more about my thought process that led to this decision.
Anyway, I bought more OCBC and made my first investment into DBS. These two banks are the pillars of the Singapore economy, so I’m certain they need no introduction, but I’m going to explain my rationale briefly below.
Oh, and of course, I also did my monthly allocation into VWRA and CSPX. I invested slightly more into each ETF this month – US$250.
1. DBS
Purchased Shares: 100
Price/Share: $45.25
Total Transaction Value: S$4,525
DBS is commonly perceived as the most “expensive” stock in Singapore. It boasts one of the highest share prices on the SGX, so I guess that’s kind of true. However, it’s technically not factually accurate since “expensive” should be judged on valuation metrics like P/E ratio, not absolute price.
But we’re not here to argue semantics.
I bought into DBS because it’s the most stable and highly valued company in Singapore.
Out of the big 3 banks, it’s the only one that’s truly government-backed – Temasek Holdings is the largest single shareholder with a 28.2% stake. In addition, DBS manages a total of S$827 billion in assets as of the end of 2024. That’s significantly more than OCBC (S$625 billion) and UOB (S$538 billion).
DBS also grew at a rapid pace. Starting with a market capitalization of S$44b in 2015, this turned into S$130b in July 2025, making DBS the most valuable company in Singapore by a large margin. SEA is the runner-up in case you’re curious, trailing behind by about 15%.
And on top of all that, it still has a dividend yield of roughly 5.2% p.a.
The estimated total shareholder return (capital appreciation + reinvested dividends) for DBS is around 15% p.a. over the past 10 years. That is an incredible return on investment for any stock in the world, much less a stock on SGX.
As far as Singapore stocks go, DBS is truly the crown jewel. It’s a no-brainer for me to add it to my portfolio.
2. OCBC
Purchased Shares: 100
Price/Share: $16.47
Total Transaction Value: S$1,647
There’s plenty of discourse going around about which of the “big 3” banks is the best investment.
My opinion is… why settle for just one?
OCBC is unique in the sense that it offers the most affordable entry point out of the 3 with a share price of S$16.75. A lot (100 shares) of OCBC costs roughly S$1,700, which is still expensive, but infinitely more affordable as compared to a lot of DBS at S$4,600.
For someone like me that DCAs a small sum every month, it’s literally impossible for me to invest consistently into DBS. I would have to save up and let it accumulate for almost 4 months before I can make the purchase of a single lot of DBS.
It’s not ideal and doesn’t help the snowball effect.
And financials-wise, while not as strong as DBS, OCBC still boasts of a modest total shareholder return of roughly 6% p.a. in the last 10 years.
It’s also worth pointing out here that 6% p.a. returns is actually on par with many regional banks in the US. One such example is U.S. Bancorp – one of the largest and most conservative regional banks in America with an average total shareholder return of 5-6% over the last 10 years.
So… yes. It’s not the highest nor is it the best. That mantle goes to DBS. But if we look past that, OCBC is as stable and reliable as any Singapore stock can get, and that’s good enough for me.
My Portfolio Performance
We’ve already established that the market bounced back in June against all odds.
This is good naturally good news for me too and my portfolio held on for the ride. It’s now back to being up close to 15%.
Still a fair way off the 18% in the beginning of the year before everything went to shit, but seeing how things were going in February, a recovery of this scale is already remarkable. It’d be borderline ungrateful to ask for anything more.
… or is it?
Year to date, net of contributions, my portfolio is up almost 4%.
Just as a reminder, year to date, the S&P500 did 5.5% in returns while the DJI returned 4.3%.
I’m hugely happy with how my portfolio is doing in comparison.
Performance by Stock
Nothing much has changed. It’s once again a sea of green with the exception of OCBC.
Visa, Microsoft and Altria remain my biggest winners and… wait. I can barely believe my eyes. Is that SCHD I see finally in the green?
I guess there actually aren’t any losers this month.
Also, special shout-out to the UCITs ETFs for a superb performance YTD of 7.5%. It’s always nice to see your investments bear fruit in front of your very eyes.
Dividend Payouts
I received US$33.83 (S$43.46) in dividends in June from Visa, Exxon Mobil, Microsoft and Google. After the $133 in May, this may seem like a pittance. But dividends are typically paid out on a quarterly basis and I only hold a couple of companies, so such wild swings in payout amounts month to month are to be expected.
This brings the total dividends I have received year to date up to S$328.67. At this current rate, I am on pace to grow almost 25% year-on-year in dividends received!
Closing Thoughts
I can’t be the only one looking back at June with wide eyes and a wry smile.
I am still in disbelief from how we hit all-time highs in June. We were on the cusp of World War 3 just 2 weeks ago. There’s still tariff-related uncertainty with the deadline imposed by the Trump administration only a week away. Inflation has not edged higher, but experts believe we have not even began to see the effects Trump’s tariffs will have on the economy yet.
And despite all that, the market rallied, briefly hitting all-time highs.
Yeah, I’ll be real. I don’t get it either. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned in life, it’s to never question a good thing.
Earlier this year, I said that I was expecting the worst. I was almost reluctant to invest at a certain point, citing job security and poor market outlook as reasons why I wanted to keep everything in cash.
And if I had done so, I would have missed out on all this upside.
Thankfully, that little voice of reason in my head compelled me to keep to my strategy. I ignored the noise and stuck to my DCA plan, investing consistently every month.
I did lose out on some gains as I kept a fair chunk in cash, fearing the worst. I wasn’t able to fully capitalize on this rally. But at least I didn’t lose out on everything by keeping it all in cash, waiting – and outright missing – the right time to invest.
Of course, full disclaimer here: there’s no telling what the market will do next. This might be a brief rally before it collapses again. Or maybe it’s the start of a longer-term bull run.
The point is… we truly never know what’s going to happen.
And that’s exactly why it’s so damn important to remain consistent and stick to your investment strategy.
Moral of the story? Staying invested, even when it feels extremely uncomfortable, is what puts you in a position to benefit when the market defies expectations.
Progress Summary
Before we end it off, here’s a visualization of how much progress I have made towards my goal since I started documenting my journey from the beginning of the year.
P.S. Since $1 million is way too far off at the moment and my progress thus far is essentially a horizontal line when plotted against a Y-axis with $1m as the max value, it makes sense to set a more realistic milestone goal as my initial target during these progress summaries.
My first target is S$100,000. After all, the great Charlie Munger once said: “The first $100,000 is a bitch, but you gotta do it.”
I am essentially 42% of the way there to my first big milestone.
Capital appreciation wise, it looks like I barely made any progress so far this year. But that’s just investing for you – your returns surge and ebb along with the flow of the market. Hopefully it starts to look better in the coming months and we’ll be able to see a clear upwards trajectory.
And that about does it for this month’s update!
Stay safe, stay financially savvy, and most importantly, stay invested.
Until next time, cheers!
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Dividend Investing to $1 Million #6: Is a Rate Cut Finally Happening?
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Dividend Investing To $1 Million #5: The Tariff End Game
Trump’s tariffs are back in full effect and the Feds continue holding firm with elevated interest rates. Here’s how my portfolio fared during this period.
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